Over the past decade, Union Budget days have demonstrated a varied impact on Indian share markets. In the 12 instances, including two interim Budgets, the benchmark large-cap indices Sensex and BSE100 have displayed mixed performances. While the BSE Sensex recorded positive returns in the last three Budget days, closing higher in six out of 12 instances, the overall trend has been a blend of gains and losses.
Data compiled from the corporate database AceEquity indicates that the 30-pack Sensex ended flat on three occasions and fell in the remaining instances. On February 1, 2022, the BSE Sensex closed at 59,708.08, up 158.18 points or 0.26%. Notably, Budget 2021 marked the best performance for the stock market, with the BSE barometer surging 2,314.84 points or 5% in a single day.
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However, on the 2020 Budget day, the Sensex fell by 2.42%, and on the 2019 Budget day (July 5, 2019), it was down by 0.98%. In contrast, the BSE index gained 0.58% on the day of the interim Budget on February 1, 2019, presented by former Finance Minister Piyush Goyal.
In the case of the BSE100, the index settled higher in six instances, remained flat once, and fell in five others. Notably, the large-cap index surged 4.55% on the 2021 Budget day and edged 0.3-0.6% higher on the days of the 2019 and 2014 interim Budgets.
The historical data reflects the dynamic nature of market reactions on Union Budget days, showcasing both positive and negative trends influenced by various fiscal announcements.