China's latest attempt to establish itself as a global power suffered a major blow on May 30. Ten Pacific nations refused to sign off on a wide-ranging agreement, just weeks after Beijing's security pact with Solomon Islands caused major worry among India's Quad allies.
So, what was the latest agreement that China tried to foist on Pacific island nations? Why did they refuse? And, what does Beijing's Pacific push means for India and its allies?
A draft of the proposed multilateral agreement obtained by The Associated Press said that China wanted to train police forces in the Pacific nations, collaborate with them on "traditional and non-traditional" security, jointly develop a marine plan for fisheries, have greater cooperation in running of internet networks in the region, and also explore the idea of a free trade area among the participating nations.
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However, several of the Pacific nations wanted to defer action or have it amended, as per news agency Reuters. The President of the Federated States of Micronesia is reported to have made the strongest pitch against signing China's agreement. He called the pact the "single, most game-changing proposed agreement in Pacific in our lifetimes" which "threatens to bring a new Cold War era at best, and a World War at worst".
In what appeared to be a not-so-veiled message, Fiji's Prime Minister tweeted that the Pacific needs genuine partners, not superpowers that are super-focused on power. It wasn't clear whether the message was aimed at China, or the West.
China did manage small victories, signing agreements with individual nations regarding police fingerprint labs, civil air transport, and bridge construction.
But the most worrisome agreement has been the one announced by Beijing and the Solomon Islands in April 2022. As per a leaked draft, the agreement allows Chinese warships to dock at the island nation, and send forces to the island to ensure law and order. Both the countries denied that it's a precursor to China setting up a military base at the island, but the West is not convinced.
What worries the West is that China would post military assets very close to Australia and New Zealand. Also, with its presence on Solomon Islands, Beijing could very easily block vital shipping lanes in the region, holding the world trade to ransom.
With the Pacific becoming a new flashpoint, India will assume a greater role in the region. India is becoming increasingly important to the West as it tries to limit China's sphere of influence. Leveraging its position, Delhi can push for greater defence technology sharing by developed nations, and also better trade pacts to counter Beijing's economic heft.
China's latest moves will also inspire Quad to take more concrete steps. The situation also ensures greater diplomatic support for India on the international stage, while raising the possibility that China might be more circumspect about aggressive moves at the border.