Exit Polls are out for five state Assembly polls. While the exact results will be out on March 10, exit polls keep up the political excitement in the run-up to counting.
The latest tranche of exit polls have predicted a BJP win in UP, an Aam Aadmi Party surprise in Punjab, a tight BJP-Congress contest in Uttarakhand, advantage BJP in Manipur and a hung house in Goa.
But how far have the exit polls been from the exact polls. A look at the last few Assembly polls shows that exit polls have been getting it all wrong in big contests.
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Let's look at West Bengal.
Almost all exit polls predicted a close contest between the BJP and Trinamool. Some even gave the BJP a thumping majority. The poll of exit polls for Bengal pitched BJP at 138 seats Vs Trinamool's 141. But when the actual results came, it was a Trinamool landslide, while BJP remained a distant second. Didi's party romped home in 213 of the 294 seats, while the BJP won just 77.
Ditto in Haryana in 2019. With Assembly elections coming within months of BJP's emphatic Lok Sabha win, exit polls predicted an impressive win for the BJP in the state. As per the poll of polls, BJP was projected to romp home in close to 70 of the 90 seats, and Congress was relegated to a mere 13. But again the results were totally different, where BJP failed to secure a majority. The saffron party won 40 seats, much less than what exit polls gave it and Congress secured 31 seats, much more than the exit polls predictions.
Similarly in Bihar 2020, all exit polls predicted a win for RJD alliance. A couple of exit polls even gave RJD a landslide win with around 180 seats in the 243 member house. Here too the actual results were opposite of the exit polls. When the votes were counted, BJP-JDU alliance won a majority with 125 seats and the RJD alliance lost with 110 seats.
Even in Maharashtra 2019, exit polls had totally written off the Congress alliance. The exit polls largely predicted a sweeping win for the BJP alliance with some polls handing the alliance 220 out of 288 seats. What were the exact results? BJP alliance 164, Congress alliance 96.
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So while exit polls may be good for political excitement before the actual counting, they need to be taken with a pinch of salt.
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