As Gujarat goes to polls, the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seeks its 7th consecutive term at the helm of the state’s affairs.
With the entry of aggressive new player Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the scene, the challenge to battle anti-incumbency gets even tougher for the BJP.
With its traditional rival, the Congress, having an unusually subdued campaign this time, let’s take a look at some of the factors that might work in favour of the BJP and some which might hamper its re-election bid.
The mass appeal of Prime Minister Modi coupled with Amit Shah still remains BJP’s trump card. Both leaders have managed to pull victories in the previous state elections despite having moved to national politics.
PM Modi’s poll pitch ‘Aa Gujarat Main Banavyu Che’ which translates to ‘I have made this Gujarat’ seems to have been a hit among its target audience of common man.
The Gujarat unit of the BJP has a formidable organisational setup till the booth level based on which the party has been stay for six consecutive terms in power.
With Patidar leader Hardik Patel into its fold this time, the ruling party might benefit after facing the community’s ire in the 2017 polls over the quota agitation.
Moreover, as the main opposition Congress appears to be optically missing from the campaign with its party leaders apparently preoccupied with Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra, the BJP might use this opportunity to woo its archrival’s voter base.
However, the picture is not all rosy for the ruling BJP as well.
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The lack of strong leadership since Narendra Modi vacated CM’s chair in 2014 is a headache for the saffron party. With Gujarat witnessing three chief ministers since 2014, the BJP has been able to keep fault lines within the party from erupting till now but they are likely to come to the fore if they lose the polls.
With AAP eyeing to make inroads in the otherwise bipolar contest, the BJP is wary of AAP’s aggressive campaign which is focused on the ‘Delhi model’ of education, healthcare and anti-corruption.
However, BJP may breathe a sigh of relief in the fact that despite AAP’s footsteps in Uttarakhand, Goa and even a surprise victory in Punjab earlier this year, it was mostly the Congress’ vote share which shifted towards AAP.
The recent bridge collapse in Morbi in which over 135 people were killed may also have an impact on BJP's electoral fortunes.
Another cause of concern for the saffron party’s high command will be its declining seat tally in each election since 2002. The ruling party won 127 seats in 2002, 117 in 2007, 116 in 2012 and 99 in 2017.
Whether BJP will be able to match CPI-M’s feat in West Bengal and win seven assembly polls in a row will be known on December 8.