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  • Northern Ireland census results spark speculation
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  • Possibility of fresh struggle for Irish re-unification

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UK: religious change revealed by census sparking Partition concern over Northern Ireland?

For the first time in Northern Ireland's history, Catholic Christians now outnumber Protestant Christians, sparking fears of socio-political turmoil.

Updated: Sep 02, 2022 10:53
|

Editorji News Desk

UK: religious change revealed by census sparking Partition concern over Northern Ireland?

Over 7 decades after violently cutting India into two pieces, is the United Kingdom headed for the same fate? The apprehension that the United Kingdom may be divided has been sparked by a regular census in one of its provinces - Northern Ireland. The 2021 census found a significant change in the proportion of religious communities.

For the first time in Northern Ireland's history, Catholic Christians now outnumber Protestant Christians. In the latest census, 45.7% respondents said that they are Catholics, or had a Catholic upbringing, compared to 43.5% Protestants. The number of respondents identifying themselves solely as British also went down, while the number of people who see themselves as Irish went up.

But why is this so important, and how can this lead to the Partition of the UK? To know that, we'll have to revisit the fraught history of the Irish island, which consists of two territories - Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland, a sovereign country.

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FRAUGHT HISTORY

The region was ruled by Great Britain since the 13th century. In the 1600s, Protestants from Scotland and England were allegedly settled there to boost Britain's authority. Ireland was formally made a part of United Kingdom in 1801. The island was proclaimed as a republic by a group called Sinn Fein in 1919. Amid growing tension, Britain split the island into two parts in 1921. The northern part was dominated by Protestants, while the southern part had more Catholics.

The republicans opposed this formula and formed the Irish Free State in 1922. Subsequently, Northern Ireland which had pro-Britain Protestants became a self-governing region within the UK. Finally, in 1949, southern Ireland became a republic and left the British Commonwealth.

But the strife was far from over. What followed was a violent period known as The Troubles.

THE TROUBLES

Bloodshed gripped Northern Ireland for 3 decades between 1968 and 1998. The conflict was mainly between politically active Protestants and Catholics. The Catholics largely supported the merger of North Ireland with the Republic of Ireland, while the Protestants were in favour of remaining a part of the UK. A group called the Irish Republican Army, or IRA, fought a guerrilla war for "independence".

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The conflict saw street fighting, bombings, and sniper attacks. Activities of the IRA were labelled 'terrorism' by unionist paramilitary forces. During the conflict, around 3,600 people died, and more than 30,000 suffered injuries. Finally, a peace deal was signed in 1998 involving the governments of UK and the Republic of Ireland. The Good Friday Agreement created a power-sharing Assembly for Northern Ireland, among other measures.

CATHOLICISM Vs PROTESTANTISM

All of this raises the question - why is there so much hostility between Catholics and Protestants, which are both Christians?

The beliefs of Catholics are based on the Bible, and the traditions of the Roman Catholic Church. The Protestants derive their beliefs only from the Bible, which they say contains the Christian God's revelations.

Catholics also believe in the authority of the Pope, who is seen as Saint Peter's successor. However, Protestants consider papal primacy contradictory to what the Bible says. In Catholicism, only men are allowed to become bishops, priests, and deacons. But in Protestantism, priesthood is not restricted to men.

Catholics also practice seven solemn rites called sacraments, which they say were instituted by Jesus. Protestants practice only two sacraments - baptism and the Eucharist. The Roman Catholic church also has a continuous practice of anointing some people 'saints'. Protestants do not believe in canonisation, but in direct prayer to God.

Northern Ireland's volatility has been caused by a potent mix of religion, politics, and regional identity.

THE CENSUS

Now, the delicate peace between Catholics and Protestants may be headed towards major disturbance, even though the demographic change is not very pronounced. In the 2011 census, Catholics numbered 45%. This has gone up to 45.7% in the 2021 survey. The Protestant share was 48% in 2011, which came down to 43.5% in the latest census. Significantly, the number of people without religion has also gone up sharply - from 10% in 2011, to 17% in 2021.

But how worried should the newly-crowned Prime Minister of UK, Liz Truss, be over the census?

THE FALLOUT

The most immediate headache for Truss is louder calls for a referendum in Northern Ireland. This may also motivate some radical elements to start armed conflict again. Such internal instability is bad for a UK which already struggling. The conflict would exacerbate economic distress. And even as London sees its global role diminishing, a Partition would only expedite its decline.

The first step towards any of this is a referendum in which Northern Ireland residents would decide whether they want to remain a part of the UK, or join the Republic of Ireland.

The decision to hold such a referendum depends on the UK government. The Good Friday Agreement also has referendum provisions, but doesn't contain details for reunification, as per reports.

Even if voting happens, how likely is it that Northern Ireland will leave the United Kingdom? The answer is more complicated than it initially appears.

PARTITION LIKELY OR UNLIKELY?

On one hand, Sinn Fein, a political party which supports the reunification of Ireland, has been growing dominant in Northern Ireland. On the other hand, many people do not place much faith in the census, claiming that in the modern era, religion may no longer be a reliable political marker.

However, Sinn Fein recently became the largest group in the Northern Ireland Assembly after regional elections. But many opinion polls have shown that the majority of people in Northern Ireland want to remain a part of UK.

Despite this, the Democratic Unionist Party, which is pro-Britain, has been displaced from the number 1 spot by Sinn Fein. Amid all this, the cross-community Alliance Party is still supported by a sizeable minority of Catholics and Protestants.

But another factor tipping the scales in the favour of Partition is Brexit. 56% Northern Ireland voters had opposed the divorce of UK from the European Union. And to counter religion-based politics, the number of non-religious people is also growing.

HOW WILL LONDON REACT?

In its colonies all over the world, the British Empire left behind a trail of misery because of its crude policies. Those tensions are simmering even today. The question is - has the United Kingdom learned from its mistakes, rendering it capable of dealing with the complicated question of Ireland in a more delicate and humane manner?

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