Quixplained: Why are Covid-19 deaths expected to rise in India

Since the beginning of May, 66,866 people have died due to the coronavirus. However, till May 17, it has been 12 days that the cases have been on a decline. Just on Tuesday, India recorded 4,329 fresh fatalities, while the single-day rise in cases is the lowest in 28 days.

There is a disparity in numbers between the caseload and the deaths. This is because the death curve usually has a two-week lag. States report deaths from a few days to weeks earlier.

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For example, Maharashtra recorded 1,019 deaths on Monday. However, 289 of these occurred between Saturday and Monday while 277 are from a week before that. Similarly, Karnataka reported 476 deaths. A few of these occurred in March while several are from April.

Apart from the administrative lag, deaths among covid patients have also been assessed to be caused by other ailments and hence not added to the covid data.

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There is also the issue of underreporting. According to the Madhya Pradesh government there were 109 covid-19 deaths in the state capital in the month of April. However, data from just three crematoriums and one graveyard in Bhopal show 2,567 bodies were cremated or buried following covid protocols from April 1-30.

April was the worst month in terms of infections reported but its impact on the mortality data can be felt now. The administrative lag amongst other factors is suggestive of an increase in the death count even if the cases drop in the near future.

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