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Understanding GDP Slump – Part 2 of 3 | Summachar

Here&rsquo;s how some countries fared in the Apr-Jun 2020 quarter after COVID-19 brought the world to its knees.
 India&rsquo;s GDP contracted by 23.9% compared to Apr-Jun 2019. In comparison to Jan-Mar 2020, the GDP contracted by 29.3%.&nbsp;
 Notably China registered a positive growth. But it is to be noted that China faced the worst of the pandemic in Jan-Mar 2020 and started recovering in Apr-Jun 2020.&nbsp; &nbsp; A more meaningful comparison would be to compare GDP trends during quarters that respective countries were worst affected by COVID&nbsp; Interestingly, China&rsquo;s 27%&nbsp;QoQ&nbsp;slump in Jan-Mar 2020 translates to 7% YoY slump.&nbsp; &nbsp; Historically China sees a&nbsp;QoQ&nbsp;GDP slump of 16-17% every year during Jan-Mar. &nbsp; The Chinese New Year holidays in this quarter lead to massive reduction of industrial output for almost a month - almost like an annual lockdown.&nbsp; &nbsp; If we look at absolute GDP figures in dollars, China saw a slump of almost a trillion dollars in Jan-Mar compared to previous quarter&nbsp; India saw a shrinkage of 152 billion dollars in the Apr-Jun&nbsp;quarter &nbsp; In the last part of this series we will have a look at GDP trends in India over the last decade and possible recovery from the COVID blues.

Understanding GDP slump - Part 3 of 3 | Summachar

Looking at the absolute quarterly GDP of&nbsp;india&nbsp;over the last decade shows some interesting trends.
 Although there is seasonal volatility, as seen in the ripples on the curve, the annual trend is of growth - the curve moves upwards at a steady pace&nbsp; There&rsquo;s generally a slump every year during Q1 (Apr-Jun). This is the quarter post budget announcements.
 Annually there&rsquo;s a strong rally around Q3 (Oct-Dec). This quarter sees a lot of major festival celebrations in India.&nbsp;
 Interestingly, the COVID slump brought India&rsquo;s production to 2015 levels&nbsp; Given that the lockdown affected Tier 1 and 2 cities more than smaller towns and rural India, an inference that can be drawn is that small town and rural India today contributes to production as much as all of India did 5 years ago. Also they seem to contribute to almost 70% of the GDP.&nbsp; &nbsp; If we look at the annual GDP, India had an average annual growth of 6.6% in the last decade. The Min was 4.2% in FY19-20 and Max was 8.3% in FY16-17.
 COVID19 lockdown during FY20-21 Q1 led to quarter GDP to shrink to ₹27&nbsp;tn&nbsp;from ₹38&nbsp;tn&nbsp;in the previous quarter.
If the next 3 quarters perform at the pace set by the quarters before COVID19 we will be on course for a classic V shaped recovery&nbsp; China has shown a similar recovery in the last quarter ending June&nbsp; &nbsp; In a V-shaped recession, the economy suffers a sharp but brief period of economic decline, followed by a strong recovery. Post lockdown, if the next 3 quarters&rsquo; GDP is in the range of FY19-20 Q4 (~₹40&nbsp;tn), the annual GDP growth will be positive.
 Even a simple recovery like this would translate to a potential 50%&nbsp;QoQ&nbsp;growth during Q2!&nbsp;This steady recovery would lead to a 1.5 - 2.5% annual growth for FY20-21.&nbsp;Yet again proving the volatility of&nbsp;QoQ&nbsp;GDP numbers and the importance of understanding the different terminologies associated with GDP.

Net direct tax collection falls 31% in Apr-Aug

The net direct tax collection during April-August fell 31% y-o-y to ₹1.92 lakh&nbsp;crore

The net direct tax collection during April-August was&nbsp;₹1.92 lakh crore, down 31% year-on-year. The net indirect tax collection during the five-month period till August fell 11% year-on-year to&nbsp;₹3.42 lakh crore.
During April-August, the Centre's Goods and Services Tax collection stood at over&nbsp;₹1.81 lakh crore. The Budget had estimated Centre's GST collection for full fiscal at&nbsp;₹6.90 lakh&nbsp;crore. In 2019-20, the Centre's actual GST revenue stood at&nbsp;₹5.99 lakh&nbsp;crore.

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