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The Ministry of Statistics also anticipates GDP expansion in FY25 to potentially surpass 7%, citing ongoing strong momentum

Statistics ministry anticipates minimal revision to FY24 GDP

The Ministry of Statistics also anticipates GDP expansion in FY25 to potentially surpass 7%, citing ongoing strong momentum

The Ministry of Statistics expects no significant downward revision to the official economic growth estimate for FY24, contrary to predictions by some analysts.
It also anticipates GDP expansion in FY25 to potentially surpass 7%, citing ongoing strong momentum.
Also read/watch -<a title=" Sensex breaks 77,000 mark for first time after PM Modi's historic third-term inauguration " href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/markets/sensex-breaks-77-000-mark-for-first-time-after-pm-modi-s-historic-third-term-inauguration-1717995072611"> Sensex breaks 77,000 mark for first time after PM Modi's historic third-term inauguration</a>
A source within the ministry, speaking to FE, emphasized that there's no deemed need for substantial revisions in either Gross Value Added (GVA) or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, asserting the robustness of the data compilation methodology for national income calculation.
As per the National Statistical Office&rsquo;s provisional estimates, India&rsquo;s GDP in FY24 grew 8.2%, while GVA grew 7.2%. The unusual gap between the two growth numbers has raised some concerns, and so has the fact that consumption growth was half the GDP rate.&nbsp;

Indian economy has grown 8.2% in FY24, remaining as a fast growing major economy even while the Jan-March quarter saw a slow pace of growth at 7.8%

India's GDP growth zooms past expectation, FY24 GDP pegged at 8.2%

<h2>Indian economy has grown 8.2% in FY24, remaining as a fast growing major economy even while the Jan-March quarter saw a slow pace of growth at 7.8%</h2>

India's GDP growth numbers have surpassed estimates. For the January to March quarter, GDP has grown 7.8%. For the full year FY24, GDP has been pegged at a strong 8.2% as compared to a growth rate of 7% in FY2022-23.
In its second advance estimate, the statistics ministry had pegged GDP growth for the financial year 2023-24 at 7.6%.
<h3>GDP growth</h3>
Meanwhile, for the January to March 2024 quarter, the GVA came in at 6.3% while for the full year 2023-2024, real GVA has grown by 7.2% compared to the 6.7% in 2022-2023.
This GVA growth has been mainly due to significant growth of 9.9% in Manufacturing sector in 2023-24 over -2.2% in 2022-23 and growth of 7.1% in 2023-24 over 1.9% in 2022-23 for Mining &amp; Quarrying sector, as per data from the Ministry of Statistics.
In FY24, the Indian economy reported growth rates of 8.2% during the April to June quarter, 8.1% in the July to September quarter, and 8.4% in the October to December quarter. Reserve Bank of India has projected a 7% GDP growth rate for the current fiscal year of FY25.
&nbsp;

ICRA projects India's GDP growth to moderate to 6.7% in Q4 FY2024, with full-year growth at 7.8%. Rural demand shows signs of revival, and investment activity remains strong despite election-related caution and the Model Code of Conduct

ICRA forecasts India’s GDP growth to moderate to 6.7% in Q4 FY2024

<h2>ICRA projects India's GDP growth to moderate to 6.7% in Q4 FY2024, with full-year growth at 7.8%. Rural demand shows signs of revival, and investment activity remains strong despite election-related caution and the Model Code of Conduct</h2>

Domestic rating agency ICRA projected India&rsquo;s GDP growth for the March quarter of FY24 to moderate to a four-quarter low of 6.7%. For the full fiscal year, ICRA estimates GDP growth at 7.8%.
<h3>GDP growth</h3>
The Indian economy demonstrated robust growth in the earlier quarters of FY2024, with GDP expanding by 8.2% in the June quarter, 8.1% in the September quarter, and 8.4% in the December quarter. However, ICRA&rsquo;s Chief Economist, Aditi Nayar, attributes the expected slowdown in the March quarter to lower volume growth and reduced profitability in certain industrial sectors due to diminishing gains from commodity prices.
India&rsquo;s GDP grew by 6.1% in the March quarter of the 2022-23 fiscal, with full-year growth for 2022-23 at 7%. The GDP figures for Q4 FY2024 and provisional estimates for the entire fiscal year are scheduled for release on May 31.
ICRA anticipates the gap between GDP and gross value added (GVA) growth to narrow to 100 basis points (bps) in Q4 FY2024, down from 185 bps in the previous quarter. This reduction is expected due to a slower expansion in net indirect taxes, influenced by a smaller decline in subsidy outgo.
For the full-year FY2024, ICRA projects GDP and GVA growth rates at 7.8% and 7%, respectively, contingent on potential revisions to the nine-month growth figures of FY2023-24.
Nayar highlighted the mixed economic signals, noting a possible revival in rural demand despite the adverse 2023 monsoon rains. She pointed to a year-on-year expansion of 7.7% in domestic retail tractor volumes in Q4 FY2024, reversing a 4% contraction in Q3 FY2024.
"Notwithstanding the overhang of the unfavourable 2023 monsoon rains on agri output, there are some green shoots suggesting that a nascent revival in rural demand may be on the anvil," Nayar said.
Additionally, listed FMCG companies reported recovery in the rural non-food segment, partly driven by marriage season demand and a low base effect. Urban consumption, though uneven, also remained robust.
"This can be partly attributed to the uptick in demand during the marriage season as well as a low base. Additionally, urban consumption is expected to have remained robust, albeit uneven in Q4 FY2024," Nayar added.
Investment activity showed strength in Q4 FY2024, with a surge in new project announcements due to state investor meets in January 2024 and increased project completions. Nonetheless, some investment indicators moderated in the March quarter compared to December, reflecting caution amid the Model Code of Conduct and election uncertainty.
ICRA also noted a 31.6% year-on-year increase in government capital expenditure to Rs 1.3 lakh crore in January-February 2024, though this may have eased in March due to the Model Code of Conduct.
Also watch: <a href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/economy/high-probability-of-india-s-gdp-growth-touching-8-for-fy24-chief-economic-advisor-1715171404657">High probability of India's GDP growth touching 8% for FY24: Chief Economic Advisor</a>

The Chief Economic Advisor while saying that there is a high possibility of India’s economic growth touching 8% in FY24, also said that India would record 7% or higher growth for the fourth consecutive year in FY25

High probability of India's GDP growth touching 8% for FY24: Chief Economic Advisor

<h2>The Chief Economic Advisor while saying that there is a high possibility of India&rsquo;s economic growth touching 8% in FY24, also said that India would record 7% or higher growth for the fourth consecutive year in FY25</h2>

Government's Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageshwaran has said that there is a high possibility of India&rsquo;s economic growth touching 8% in FY24. He further said that India would record 7% or higher growth for the fourth consecutive year in FY25 and lot of it would depend on the monsoons
"Right now, the expectations are that we will have an above-normal monsoon. But, spatial and temporal distribution (of rainfall) will matter," the CEA said
<h3>India's GDP growth</h3>
While speaking at an event in New Delhi, the CEA said that 6.5-7% growth rate was expected to continue in the coming years and it was important to maintain it. Earlier, on February 29, Nageshwaran had said that the country's continued out-performance was making a case for international organisations to raise their estimates of India's potential growth rate to 7% or even higher.
In the december quarter, India's GDP grew at 8.4% which was the highest in the last six quarters. The third quarter uptick was propelled by a double-digit growth in the manufacturing sector, with construction not too far behind, growing at 9.5%.
Following this the National Statistical Office revised its GDP growth estimate for FY24 from 7.3% to 7.6% and the RBI estimated the growth at 7%, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects it at 6.8%.&nbsp;
On inflation, Nageshwaran said that he doesn't foresee any significant upside risk to inflation at the moment and expects retail inflation to remain within the midpoint of the RBI's target range of 2-6% in FY25.&nbsp;
"There can always be scenarios on the geopolitical front that can cause inflation to be more than what we expect. But at this point, our baseline scenario is that inflation gradually converges towards the midpoint of the target range in FY25," he added.
Nageshwaran also highlighted the need for growth in the small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to increase the share of manufacturing in the country's overall GDP
"Building blocks such as supply-side infrastructure, physical connectivity, digital connectivity, and financial inclusion are good work in progress," he said. &ldquo;But apart from these, ultimately, the compliance burdens and inspection burdens that businesses face at the subnational government level need to be addressed to grow the manufacturing share of GDP."
Also Watch: <a href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/rbi-proposes-tighter-norms-for-lending-for-infra-projects-psu-bank-stocks-fall-1714982411809">RBI proposes tighter norms for lending for infra projects; PSU bank stocks fall</a>

For the world, Fitch Ratings has raised its 2024 global GDP growth forecast by 0.3% points to 2.4%, as near-term world growth prospects have improved

Fitch raises India's GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2025 to 7% versus the earlier projection of...

<h2>For the world, Fitch Ratings has raised its 2024 global GDP growth forecast by 0.3% points to 2.4%, as near-term world growth prospects have improved</h2>

Fitch Ratings on Thursday raised its forecast for India's economic growth to 7% for fiscal year 2025 on the back of strong domestic demand and sustained level of business and consumer confidence.
FY24 growth estimate also upped
Fitch also sees the Indian economy expanding 7.8% in FY24, marginally higher than the government's estimate of 7.6%. This projection follows a stronger-than-expected 8.4% growth in gross domestic product (GDP) during the third quarter (October-December) of the current fiscal year,&nbsp;
India's strong domestic demand
In its latest 'Global Economic Outlook', the rating agency said India's economic growth continued to outperform quarterly forecasts with strong domestic demand.&nbsp;
Global economic outlook improves
For the world, Fitch Ratings has raised its 2024 GDP growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 2.4%, as near-term world growth prospects have improved.
This comes on the back of a sharp upward revision to its US growth forecast from 1.2% to 2.1%, in the December 2023 Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
"Stronger US growth prospects outweigh a marginal cut to our China 2024 growth forecast -- to 4.5 per cent from 4.6 per cent -- and a minor revision to our eurozone forecast, to 0.6 per cent from 0.7 per cent," it said.
The emerging markets picture
"Growth in emerging markets, excluding China, has been revised up by 0.1 percentage point to 3.2 per cent, with forecasts raised for India, Russia and Brazil." said Fitch. It expects world growth in 2025 to edge up to 2.5% as the eurozone finally recovers, on a pick-up in real wages and consumption, but as US growth slows.
India's growth may ease from current level
For India, Fitch Ratings said, "With GDP growth having exceeded 8 per cent for three consecutive quarters, we expect an easing in growth momentum in the final quarter of the current fiscal year, implying an estimate of 7.8 per cent for growth in FY24." Recent quarterly data has shown that GDP is rising much faster than gross value-added -- indirect taxes net of subsidies is the difference between the two -- and this unusually wide gap may normalise.
Strong business survey data for January and February represents an upside risk to these estimates, it said.

The CRISIL report has mentioned that India's manufacturing and service sector will be in a sturdier growth path taking India's GDP to grow at 6.8% in FY25

India to become upper middle-income country by 2031; to grow at 6.8% in FY25: CRISIL

<h2>The CRISIL report has mentioned that India's manufacturing and service sector will be in a sturdier growth path taking India's GDP to grow at 6.8% in FY25</h2>

CRISIL Ratings on Wednesday has projected India's GDP growth at 6.8% for the fiscal year 2025 while saying that the country will become an upper middle-income nation by 2031. This prediction comes as it expects the country's economy to inch closer to $7 trillion by 2031.
<h3>CRISIL on Indian economy</h3>
The report further mentioned that India can become the third largest economy by 2031 with the support from domestic structural reforms and cyclical levers.&nbsp;
"After a better-than-expected 7.6% this fiscal, India's real GDP growth will likely moderate to 6.8% in fiscal 2025," said the Crisil India Outlook report.&nbsp;
It said that the next seven fiscals (2025-2031) will see the Indian economy crossing the USD 5 trillion-mark and inching closer to USD 7 trillion. Crisil expects the economy to expand to USD 6.7 trillion by fiscal 2031.
"A projected average expansion of 6.7% in this period will make India the third-largest economy in the world and lift per capita income to the upper-middle income category by 2031," Crisil said.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/economy/moody-s-raises-india-s-2024-gdp-growth-estimate-to-6-8-from-earlier-forecast-of-6-1-1709537802869">Moody's raises India's 2024 GDP growth estimate to 6.8% from earlier forecast of 6.1%</a>
India, with a GDP size of USD 3.6 trillion, is currently the fifth largest economy in the world, after the US, China, Japan and Germany.
"By fiscal 2031, India will be the No. 3 economy and an upper-middle income country, which will be a big positive for domestic consumption", said CRISIL Managing Director and CEO Amish Mehta
<h3>Upper middle-income country</h3>
The report further mentioned that the per capita income in India will increase to $4,500 by 2031. As per World Bank's definition, the countries with per capita income of $1,000-$4,000 are lower-middle income countries, and upper-middle income countries are those with per capita income between USD 4,000-12,000.
India's manufacturing sector is at a sweet spot due to high capacity utilisation across key sectors, opportunities from global supply-chain diversification, thrust on infrastructure investment, the green-transition imperative and strong balance sheets of lenders.
"Continuous reforms, enhanced global competitiveness and moving up the value chain will boost the share of manufacturing in India's GDP beyond the projected 20% in fiscal 2031," Mehta said.
Crisil report said near- and medium-term challenges to growth outlook would come from geopolitics, slowing potential growth from an uneven global recovery, climate change and technological disruptions.
The report said the near term will be characterised by fiscal consolidation, with the gradually receding role of government capex and expectations of the baton being taken up by the the private sector.
Emerging sectors, which are growing faster than others, are electronics, EV, and energy transition-intensive and they account for 16% of the incremental capex in fiscals 2023 and 2024.
Through fiscal 2031, both cylinders of the economy -- manufacturing and services -- will fire, yielding a sturdier growth path.
Crisil Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi said there is ample opportunity for both manufacturing and services to cater to domestic and global demand.
"We project manufacturing and services to grow 9.1% and 6.9%, respectively, between fiscals 2025 and 2031. Despite some growth catch-up by manufacturing, services will remain the dominant driver of India's growth," Joshi said.

Robust growth in manufacturing and construction sectors along with high domestic demand has been credited &nbsp;for India's GDP numbers.&nbsp;

Indian economy grows 8.4% in Q3, Govt’s ‘Make-in-India’ push for semi-conductors | The India Story

Robust growth in manufacturing and construction sectors along with high domestic demand has been credited  for India's GDP numbers. 

Robust growth in manufacturing and construction sectors along with high domestic demand has been credited &nbsp;for India's GDP numbers.&nbsp;

The Indian economy grew 8.4% during the October-December quarter beating the estimates by the RBI and the Dalal Street. The RBI had pegged the growth for this quarter at 6.5%.
Also, in a big move to reduce India&rsquo;s dependency on imports to the requirement of semi-conductors, the government has approved setting up of 3 chip manufacturing units in the country.
This week on India Story, Vikram Chandra takes you through some important growth numbers.&nbsp;

In its initial estimates for 2023-24, the National Statistical Office (NSO) anticipates the Indian economy to grow by 7.3%, a slight increase from the previous fiscal year's 7.2%

India's GDP likely to grow by 7.3% in 2023-24: Government estimates 

<h2>In its initial estimates for 2023-24, the National Statistical Office (NSO) anticipates the Indian economy to grow by 7.3%, a slight increase from the previous fiscal year's 7.2%</h2>

The Indian economy is forecasted to grow at 7.3% in 2023-24, slightly up from the 7.2% of the previous fiscal year, as per the National Statistical Office's initial estimates. The real GDP is anticipated to reach Rs 171.79 lakh crore, up from the prior year's provisional estimate of Rs 160.06 lakh crore.
The growth in real GDP for 2023-24 is estimated at 7.3%, a marginal increase from 7.2% in the previous fiscal year. Additionally, the GDP at current prices is expected to be Rs 296.58 lakh crore, compared to the provisional estimate of Rs 272.41 lakh crore for 2022-23. Also read/watch -<a title=" Indian startups that aim for IPOs in 2024 encounter profitability challenges " href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/startups/indian-startups-that-aims-for-ipos-in-2024-encounter-profitability-challenges-1704450755257"> Indian startups that aim for IPOs in 2024 encounter profitability challenges</a>
However, the growth in nominal GDP for 2023-24 is projected at 8.9%, a notable decrease from the 16.1% recorded in 2022-23.
In December 2023, the RBI revised India's GDP growth forecast for 2023-24 to 7% from its earlier projection of 6.5%.

A viral unverified screenshot on Sunday claimed India’s GDP surpassed $4 trillion, marking a historic first. However, here's what economists say about how close we are to that mark. 

India not yet a $4 trillion economy; but we are close, say economists

A viral unverified screenshot on Sunday claimed India&rsquo;s GDP surpassed $4 trillion, marking a historic first. However, here's what economists say about how close we are to that mark.&nbsp;

India is, without a doubt, one of the fastest growing economies in the world. However, it is not yet a $4 trillion economy, as claimed by a recent screenshot that went viral.&nbsp;
Social media has been abuzz with a screenshot claiming that India's GDP had reached $4 trillion, sparking discussions of India surpassing the UK as the third-largest economy. However, this is not the case.&nbsp; Economists have pointed out that while India has not reached the milestone, it is close. Projected budget numbers say that India's GDP is around $3.63 trillion. Economists like Madan Sabnavis from Bank of Baroda dismissed the likelihood of India hitting the $4 trillion mark, citing current projections.
Also read/watch - <a title="Who is the new interim Chief of OpenAI Emmett Shear succeeding Sam Altman?" href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/who-is-the-new-interim-chief-of-openai-emmett-shear-suceeding-sam-altman-1700482107912">Who is the new interim Chief of OpenAI Emmett Shear succeeding Sam Altman?</a>
The Union Budget projected a nominal GDP of around $3.63 trillion for the current fiscal year, making a $4 trillion economy seem improbable.
"India on a rolling basis won&rsquo;t hit $4 trillion till late 2024-early 2025," Barclays India chief economist Rahul Bajoria, said in a post on X.&nbsp;
https://publish.twitter.com/?query=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FRahulBajoria_%2Fstatus%2F1726176727515402389&amp;widget=Tweet
Meanwhile, Deepak Shenoy of Capitalmind points out that at best we are possibly at $3.45 trillion now.&nbsp; &ldquo;A $4 trillion economy does not seem likely in the current situation. It would translate into nominal GDP of about Rs 330 lakh crore, which may be possible with a 10% growth in 2024-25,&rdquo; said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda.
https://publish.twitter.com/?query=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fdeepakshenoy%2Fstatus%2F1726223582085485037&amp;widget=Tweet
While, there was no official confirmation or denial of this, the post with the screengrab went viral and was shared by many including BJP leaders.&nbsp; Also read/watch - <a title="PhysicsWallah may lay off up to 120 employees" href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/physics-wallah-may-lay-off-up-to-120-employees-1700481188643">PhysicsWallah may lay off up to 120 employees</a> &nbsp;
India&rsquo;s official GDP estimates are released by the National Statistical Office under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation per a scheduled calendar. Official data on GDP estimates for the second quarter of the financial year will be released at the end of this month.&nbsp;
<h4>RBI's estimate on India's GDP&nbsp;</h4>
According to recent RBI estimates, the Indian economy is expected to grow 6.5 per cent this financial year, lower than 7.2 per cent recorded in 2022-23. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected growth of 6.3 per cent every year till 2028.&nbsp;

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which expects the GDP to grow at 6.5 per cent in FY24, has estimated a growth of 8 per cent in the April-June period

Economists anticipate Q1 GDP growth to exceed RBI's 8% estimate

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which expects the GDP to grow at 6.5 per cent in FY24, has estimated a growth of 8 per cent in the April-June period

The country's real GDP growth in the first quarter will be better than the Reserve Bank's estimate of 8 per cent, economists said on Tuesday.
Economists at the country's largest lender SBI pegged the growth at 8.3 per cent while domestic rating agency Icra estimated it to come even higher at 8.5 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which expects the GDP to grow at 6.5 per cent in FY24, has estimated a growth of 8 per cent in the April-June period.
Official data on growth will be released later this month. In the preceding March quarter, the real GDP had grown at 6.1 per cent as compared to the year-ago period.
Both SBI and Icra credited capital expenditure by the Centre and states for their expectations of faster economic growth.
The rating agency also said that the lower base -- the GDP had contracted by nearly a fourth in the first quarter of FY21 -- as a helping factor.
A note by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, the group chief economic adviser at SBI, said the largest lender has tracked 30 high frequency indicators to come at the estimate of 8.3 per cent.
"There has been a surge in capital expenditure in Q1, with the central government spending 27.8 per cent of budgeted, while states at 12.7 per cent of budgeted,&rdquo; the note said.
States like Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Madhya Pradesh where elections are due have registered capital expenditure growth of up to 41 per cent, it added.
Contributions of the services sector -- which has continued to deliver higher growth -- were also mentioned by SBI and Icra.
They also hinted at widening profit margins in the corporate sector as a tailwind which is benefitting the growth prospects.
However, they diverged on their views on the economic growth for the entire fiscal, with SBI estimating the FY24 growth at 6.7 per cent while Icra projecting it will come in at 6 per cent, which is much below the RBI estimate.
Icra's chief economist Aditi Nayar said the second half of the fiscal is likely to witness headwinds, which will prove a dampener.
Nayar said erratic rainfall, narrowing differentials with year-ago commodity prices, and possible slowdown in momentum of the government capex as the country approaches the Parliamentary elections will limit the growth.
In its June quarter estimates, SBI also mentioned about the continued high credit growth and the ability of the banks to persist with the same given their lean balance sheets, as being beneficial to the growth process.

In March, Fitch had lowered its forecast for the fiscal year 2024 to 6% from its earlier predicted growth rate of 6.2%. The rating agency mentioned the elevated inflation and interest rates along with subdued global demand as the reason for reducing

Fitch raises India's GDP forecast to 6.3% for current fiscal year

In March, Fitch had lowered its forecast for the fiscal year 2024 to 6% from its earlier predicted growth rate of 6.2%. The rating agency mentioned the elevated inflation and interest rates along with subdued global demand as the reason for reducing 

In March, Fitch had lowered its forecast for the fiscal year 2024 to 6% from its earlier predicted growth rate of 6.2%. The rating agency mentioned the elevated inflation and interest rates along with subdued global demand as the reason for reducing

Fitch Ratings on Thursday revised upwards its FY24 economic growth forecast for India to 6.3% from 6% it had predicted earlier.
This is primarily because of a stronger out turn in the first quarter and near-term momentum.
The growth forecast compares with 7.2% GDP expansion in FY23. In the previous fiscal year (FY22), the economy had grown 9.1%.
"India's economy has been showing broad-based strength - with GDP up by 6.1% year-on-year in 1Q23 (January-March) and auto sales, PMI surveys and credit growth remaining robust in recent months - and we have raised our forecast for the fiscal year ending in March 2024 (FY23-24) by 0.3% to 6.3%," the rating agency said.
Fitch had in March lowered its forecast for 2023-24 to 6% from 6.2% citing headwinds from elevated inflation and interest rates along with subdued global demand.
For 2024-25 and 2025-26 fiscal years, it estimated a growth of 6.5% each.
Inflation has moderated since and the domestic economy has picked up.
Stating that GDP growth in January-March was higher than expected, Fitch said there has been a recovery in manufacturing after two consecutive quarterly contractions, a boost from construction and an increase in farm output.
In expenditure terms, GDP growth was driven by domestic demand and a boost from net trade.
Recent high-frequency data point to sustained near-term momentum as highlighted by rising PMI indices, higher car sales and increased power consumption.
The economy also continues to benefit from high bank credit growth and infrastructure spending (with more to come from the latter).
"The stronger outturn in 1Q23 and near-term momentum have prompted us to upgrade our FY23-24 growth forecast to 6.3%...one of highest growth rates in the world," it said adding India's economy will be affected to an extent by slowing global trade.
The rating agency said the full impact of 250 basis points increase in interest rates by RBI (since May 2022) is still to be felt.
"Consumers have also experienced a drop in purchasing power as inflation increased sharply in 2022 and household balance sheets have also been weakened through the pandemic.
"At the same time, the government&rsquo;s push on increased capital expenditure, moderation in commodity prices and robust credit growth are expected to support investment. Slowing inflation should also start to help consumers over time and households have now turned more optimistic about future earnings and employment," it said.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept policy rates at 6.5% since the start of the year, while headline inflation eased from a peak of 7.8% to 4.3% in May, a figure that is already within the RBI's tolerance band of 2%-6%.
Wholesale price index based inflation (WPI) has also fallen to its lowest in more than seven years to (-) 3.48% in May.
Nevertheless, while inflation has eased there are near-term upward risks in 2H23, given the monsoon outlook and the potential impact of El Ni&ntilde;o, Fitch said.
"With growth expected to moderate further, and inflationary pressures easing, we expect the RBI to pause its rate cycle for the time being before cutting early next year &ndash; a change from our previous call of one more 25bps increase to 6.75%," it added.&nbsp;

Chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran has said that India's growth may exceed his initial forecast of 6.5% in the current fiscal

India's GDP: Chief economic adviser Nageswaran confident of growth prospects for FY24

Chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran has said that India's growth may exceed his initial forecast of 6.5% in the current fiscal

After India reported a higher-than-expected GDP on Wednesday, the Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran has expressed confidence about the growth prospects of the country. He has said that India's growth may exceed his initial forecast of 6.5% in the current fiscal.
"We are prepared to stick our neck out one more time and say that the risks to 6.5% (GDP growth forecast for 2023-24) are probably more evenly balanced &ndash; that is, there is as good a chance that this number may be exceeded as there is a chance that the reality may undershoot this number," said Nageswaran.
India's economy grew by 6.1% for the Jan-Mar quarter of 2022-23 and the annual growth rate was at 7.2%. As per the data released this due to a better performance in agriculture, manufacturing, mining and construction sectors.
The Chief Economic Adviser also said that the headline retail inflation of&nbsp; India will come close to the RBI's medium-term target of 4% in 2023-24.

In the three months between October and December 2022, according to statistics released by the Reserve Bank of India, India's exports of services increased by 24.5% year over year, reaching a record $83.4 billion.

World Bank predicts that India's GDP growth will likely slow to 6.3% in FY24

In the three months between October and December 2022, according to statistics released by the Reserve Bank of India, India's exports of services increased by 24.5% year over year, reaching a record $83.4 billion.

India's GDP growth is expected to slow down to 6.3% in FY24, owing to decreased consumption as a result of slower income, as per a World Bank report.&nbsp;
Analysts and economists predict that a surge in India's services exports, which reached a new high in the quarter of October to December, will protect the economy from external risks while a slowing global economy will likely have a negative impact on the nation's merchandise exports.
According to a Reuters article, more lucrative services like consulting and research and development are now driving service exports in addition to IT services, which are no longer the only ones doing so.
In the three months from October to December 2022, India's exports of services increased by 24.5% year over year, reaching a record $83.4 billion, according to statistics released by the Reserve Bank of India.
At the end of February, the fiscal deficit of the central government reached 82.8% of the goal for the entire year. The government anticipates a deficit of ₹17.55 lakh, or 6.4% of GDP, for the entire fiscal year 2022&ndash;23. as reported by Mint

The government has kept the GDP estimate unchanged at 7% for the full financial year 2022-23

Explained: India's GDP grows at 4.4 pc in Q3

The government has kept the GDP estimate unchanged at 7% for the full financial year 2022-23

India's economic growth slowed down to 4.4 per cent in the third quarter of 2022-23 mainly due to poor performance of the manufacturing sector.
In October-December 2021, the economy grew by 11.2 per cent and by 6.3 per cent in the July-September 2022 quarter, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Tuesday.
The NSO in its second advance estimate of national accounts pegged the country's growth at 7 per cent for 2022-23.
Besides, the NSO revised the GDP growth for 2021-22 to 9.1 per cent against the earlier estimate of 8.7 per cent.

GDP growth for the October to December quarter (Q3) of the current financial year came in at 4.4% more or less in line with estimates.

Q3 FY23 GDP: Oct-Dec GDP growth at 4.4%

Q3 FY23 GDP OCT-DEC GDP GROWTH AT 4.4% Q3 GDP GROWTH AT 4.4% VS 6.3% IN Q2 GOVT&rsquo;S GDP ESTIMATE FOR 2022-23 AT 7%

GDP growth for the October to December quarter (Q3) came in at 4.4% versus 6.3% for the quarter ending september.&nbsp;

GDP growth for the October to December quarter (Q3) of the current financial year came in at 4.4% more or less in line with estimates. This compares to 6.3% GDP for the quarter ending September 2022.&nbsp; On a sectoral basis, for Q3, agriculture growth and mining growth came in at 3.7% each. Manufacturing saw a contraction of 1.1%. Meanwhile, construction sector grew a strong 8.4% as well as trade, hotel, transport, communications saw a 9.7% growth. Real estate and financial sector growth came in at 5.8%. The government has kept the GDP estimate unchanged at 7% for the full financial year 2022-23.&nbsp; However, the GDP growth for the previous financial year FY22 has been revised upwards to 9.1% as against an earlier estimate of 8.7%.&nbsp;

Economists expect the GDP growth for Q3FY23 to slow to 4.6%. This, largely due to base effects normalising which are pulling down the numbers. 

October-December GDP expected to slow to 4.6%

Economists expect the GDP growth for Q3FY23 to slow to 4.6%. This, largely due to base effects normalising which are pulling down the numbers.&nbsp;

The GDP numbers for the October to December quarter will be released on Tuesday, 28th February.&nbsp; As per a poll by Reuters, GDP growth is likely to have slowed down to 4.6% in the third quarter of the current financial year.&nbsp; SBI research also pegs the GDP for Q3 at 4.6% which is higher than the Reserve Bank of India's estimate of 4.4%. The SBI report also says that revisions are likely in the GDP data for FY20, FY21 and FY22. "There are base effects that are normalizing and pulling down the annual numbers. The support from agriculture might be lower and also manufacturing could be a drag," said Sakshi Gupta, principal economist at HDFC Bank.&nbsp; In Q1 (April to June) GDP came in at 13.5%, that was largely due to the pandemic related statistical distortions. The following quarter ending September 2022, GDP came in at 6.3%.&nbsp;

RBI lowers GDP growth projection, hikes repo rate

&nbsp;RBI has&nbsp;maintained policy stance at &lsquo;withdrawal of accommodation&rsquo;

Making it the 5th tiime in a row, the RBI&rsquo;s Monetary Policy Committee on Wednesday raised the repo rate by 35 basis points (bps) to 6.25 per cent with immediate effect, making loans expensive. The policy rate is now at the highest level since August 2018. The RBI has maintained policy stance at &lsquo;withdrawal of accommodation&rsquo;.
The RBI lowered FY23 GDP growth forecast to 6.8 per cent from 7 per cent earlier. The central bank has, however, retained its retail inflation projection for FY23 at 6.7 per cent.&nbsp;
This is the fifth consecutive repo rate hike this year. With this latest hike, the RBI&rsquo;s rate-setting panel has raised the key policy rate by 225 basis points this year in total, in order to control inflation. The repo rate is the interest rate at which the RBI lends to the commercial bank.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi poked fun at the United Kingdom after India overtook UK to become the world's fifth-largest economy.
PM Modi said that this rise in rank was special as the British had ruled India for 250 years. He added that the rise in India's economic ranking has come soon after the 'Har Ghar Tiranga' campaign for 15 August 2022 when India completed 75 years of freedom.
The Indian economy is now behind only the United States of America, China, Japan, and Germany.
However, India has a long way to go in translating this economic rise to benefits for the entire population. Given India's large population, the country a long way behind UK in terms of GDP per capita. While India's per capita GDP is $2,500, UK's per capita GDP is $47,000.

PM Modi pokes fun at UK as India becomes 5th largest economy: 'Those who ruled us for 250 years...'

PM Modi pokes fun at UK as India become 5th largest economy: 'Those who ruled us for 250 years...'

PM Modi said that this rise in rank was special as the British had ruled India for 250 years, and were now being left behind economically by India.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi poked fun at the United Kingdom after India overtook UK to become the world's fifth-largest economy.
PM Modi said that this rise in rank was special as the British had ruled India for 250 years. He added that the rise in India's economic ranking has come soon after the 'Har Ghar Tiranga' campaign for 15 August 2022 when India completed 75 years of freedom.
The Indian economy is now behind only the United States of America, China, Japan, and Germany.
However, India has a long way to go in translating this economic rise to benefits for the entire population. Given India's large population, the country a long way behind UK in terms of GDP per capita. While India's per capita GDP is $2,500, UK's per capita GDP is $47,000.
Also watch: <a href="https://www.editorji.com/world-news/new-uk-pm-liz-truss-beats-rishi-sunak-to-get-top-job-1662377957075">New UK PM: Liz Truss defeats Rishi Sunak for top job; hails Boris Johnson, announces tax cut plan</a>

The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth projections for 2022 and 2023, calling the world’s economic outlook “gloomy and more uncertain.“A tentative recovery in 2021 has been followed by increasingly gloomy developments in 2022,” the report said. The Washington-based institute now expects the world economy to grow 3.2% in 2022 before slowing to a 2.9% GDP rate in 2023. This marks a 0.4-0.7% cut in estimates. Worsening growth prospects in the U.S., China and India drove the IMF’s downward revisions.India's economy is now projected to grow by 7.4% in FY23, 80 basis points lower than IMF’s April projection of 8.2%. India’s FY24 growth forecast has also been cut by 80 basis points to 6.1%."For India, the revision reflects mainly less favourable external conditions and more rapid policy tightening," the report said. 

IMF slashes global growth outlook, India GDP estimate also not spared

IMF is calling out increasingly gloomy developments as it slashes global GDP outlook led by India and China

IMF slashes global GDP, pins India and China's dowgrade for revision

India will remain one of the fastest growing key economies in the world in 2022-23 and 2023-24

The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth projections for 2022 and 2023, calling the world&rsquo;s economic outlook &ldquo;gloomy and more uncertain. &ldquo;A tentative recovery in 2021 has been followed by increasingly gloomy developments in 2022,&rdquo; the report said. The Washington-based institute now expects the world economy to grow 3.2% in 2022 before slowing to a 2.9% GDP rate in 2023. This marks a 0.4-0.7% cut in estimates.&nbsp;
Also read/watch| <a title="Find out why 1000 Lufthansa flights are grounded in Germany" href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/find-out-why-1000-lufthansa-flights-are-grounded-in-germany-1658889219179">Find out why 1000 Lufthansa flights are grounded in Germany</a> Worsening growth prospects in the U.S., China and India drove the IMF&rsquo;s downward revisions. India's economy is now projected to grow by 7.4% in FY23, 80 basis points lower than IMF&rsquo;s April projection of 8.2%. India&rsquo;s FY24 growth forecast has also been cut by 80 basis points to 6.1%. "For India, the revision reflects mainly less favourable external conditions and more rapid policy tightening," the report said. &nbsp;

World Bank is expecting India's growth train to slowdown as the prolonged impact of Covid pandemic and the ongoing supply shocks from Ukraine and Russia continue to weigh."In India, growth is expected to slow to 7.5 percent in fiscal year 2022/23, with headwinds from rising inflation, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions offsetting buoyancy in the recovery of services consumption following the pandemic," according to the World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects report.The bank sees India's growth slowing further to 7.1 percent in FY24 and the next year GDP growth has been pegged at 6.5 percent.The pressure on India's growth comes from a global risk of recession, infact even if that is averted the World Bank states "the pain of stagflation could persist for several years unless major supply increases are set in motion… Several years of above-average inflation and below-average growth are now likely, with potentially destabilising consequences for low- and middle-income economies."

World Bank sharply cuts India GDP growth forecast, raises global recession risk

It had lowered the projection from 8.7% to 8% earlier in April, and it is currently expected to be 7.5%

World Bank is expecting India's growth train to slowdown as the prolonged impact of Covid&nbsp;pandemic and the ongoing supply shocks from Ukraine and Russia continue to weigh. "In India, growth is expected to slow to 7.5 percent in fiscal year 2022/23, with headwinds from rising inflation, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions offsetting buoyancy in the recovery of services consumption following the pandemic," according to the World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects report.
Also read/watch|<a title="&nbsp;RBI raises inflation forecast sharply, price pain to remain" href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/rbi-raises-inflation-forecast-sharply-price-pain-to-remain-1654664762071">&nbsp;RBI raises inflation forecast sharply, price pain to remain</a> The bank sees India's growth slowing further to 7.1 percent in FY24 and the next year&nbsp;GDP growth has been pegged at 6.5 percent. The pressure on India's growth comes from a global risk of recession, in fact&nbsp;even if that is averted the World Bank states&nbsp;"the pain of stagflation could persist for several years unless major supply increases are set in motion&hellip; Several years of above-average inflation and below-average growth are now likely, with potentially destabilising consequences for low- and middle-income economies."

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