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India may see a worsening of its outbreak as soon as this month, according to a mathematical model by researchers who accurately predicted the second wave peak earlier this year.
The new virus wave may peak in October, according to estimates by researchers led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at Indian Institute of Technology in Hyderabad and Kanpur.
In the fresh wave, in the best-case scenario India will likely see less than 100,000 infections a day, or nearly 150,000 in the worst case.
States with high Covid rates, such as Kerala and Maharashtra, could "skew the picture," Vidyasagar told Bloomberg.
The forecast underscores the need for India to accelerate its vaccination campaign, deploy surveillance methods to catch emerging hotspots and stay vigilant through genome sequencing given the potential for new variants to emerge.
Meanwhile, India reported 40,134 new Covid cases and 422 deaths in th last 24 hours, according to health ministry data on Monday morning. At present, there are 4,13,718 active Covid-19 cases, which is 1.3 per cent of the total infections. The fatality rate now stands at 1.34 per cent and recovery rate is 97.36 per cent.

India reported 40,134 new cases; Forecaster who predicted Covid peak sees new wave ahead

India may see a worsening of its outbreak as soon as this month, according to a mathematical model by researchers. The new virus wave may peak in October.

India may see a worsening of its outbreak as soon as this month, according to a mathematical model by researchers. The new virus wave may peak in October.

India may see a worsening of its Covid-19 outbreak as soon as this month, according to a mathematical model by researchers who accurately predicted the second wave peak earlier this year.
The new coronavirus wave may peak in October, according to estimates by researchers led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at the Indian Institute of Technology in Hyderabad and Kanpur.
Also Read&nbsp;<a href="https://www.editorji.com/story/global-covid-update-delta-variant-causing-havoc-worldwide-countries-tighten-norms-1627871315765" target="_blank">Global Covid Update: Delta variant causing havoc worldwide, countries tighten norms</a>
In the fresh Covid wave, in the best-case scenario, India will likely see less than 1,00,000 infections a day, or nearly 1,50,000 in the worst case.
States with high Covid rates, such as Kerala and Maharashtra, could "skew the picture," Vidyasagar told Bloomberg.
The forecast underscores the need for India to accelerate its vaccination campaign, deploy surveillance methods to catch emerging hotspots and stay vigilant through genome sequencing given the potential for new variants to emerge.
Meanwhile, India reported 40,134 new Covid cases and 422 deaths in the last 24 hours, according to health ministry data on Monday morning. At present, there are above 4 lakh active Covid-19 cases, which is 1.3 per cent of the total infections. The fatality rate now stands at 1.34 per cent and the recovery rate is 97.36 per cent.

Govt panel: Covid-19 peaked in India, lockdown prevented deaths

A government-appointed scientific committee has said the&nbsp;Covid-19&nbsp;epidemic seems to have peaked and is now on the decline, and is likely to run its course by February next year. The committee, headed by Professor M Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad, has used computer models to map the trajectory of the epidemic in the country. Its key finding has been that the disease is likely to have peaked in the middle of September, and the total number of infections in India is unlikely to exceed 10.6 million. So far, 75 lakh people in India have been infected, of which nearly 66 lakh have recovered.&nbsp;The committee claimed that the lockdown imposed in March has had a powerful impact on slowing down the spread of the disease in the country. In the absence of the lockdown, the death count would have gone up to 25 lakh, it said. As of now, 1.14 lakh people have died in India because of the disease.

Govt panel: Covid-19 peaked in India, lockdown prevent deaths

A government-appointed scientific committee has said the&nbsp;Covid-19&nbsp;epidemic seems to have peaked and is now on the decline, and is likely to run its course by February next year. The committee, headed by Professor M Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad, has used computer models to map the trajectory of the epidemic in the country. Its key finding has been that the disease is likely to have peaked in the middle of September, and the total number of infections in India is unlikely to exceed 10.6 million. So far, 75 lakh people in India have been infected, of which nearly 66 lakh have recovered.&nbsp;The committee claimed that the lockdown imposed in March has had a powerful impact on slowing down the spread of the disease in the country. In the absence of the lockdown, the death count would have gone up to 25 lakh, it said. As of now, 1.14 lakh people have died in India because of the disease.

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