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The credit growth momentum is already moderating, the brokerage said, pointing out that the number has come down to 15.4 per cent in March as compared to 16 per cent in February and 16.7 per cent in January

Credit growth likely to moderate to 10 pc in FY24: Report

The credit growth momentum is already moderating, the brokerage said, pointing out that the number has come down to 15.4 per cent in March as compared to 16 per cent in February and 16.7 per cent in January

The credit growth momentum is waning in the country and the crucial non-food loans growth is expected to slip to 10 per cent in FY24 from more than 15 per cent in FY23, a Japanese brokerage said on Monday.
Ebbing inflationary pressures, especially on the wholesale side which tends to lower working capital needs, and a likely moderation in GDP growth to 5.3 per cent in FY24 were cited as the primary reasons for the lower bank credit growth expectation by Nomura.
"&hellip; we expect credit growth to moderate to 10 per cent in FY24 from 15 per cent in FY23," analysts at the brokerage said in a report, adding that the base effect will also be partly responsible for driving the number down.
They also said the rate hikes of more than 2.50 per cent by RBI in the current tightening cycle will impact credit growth through a lagged impact on borrowings, and already, there are some signs of a dent on the home loan front.
The credit growth momentum is already moderating, the brokerage said, pointing out that the number has come down to 15.4 per cent in March as compared to 16 per cent in February and 16.7 per cent in January.
"A further moderation is likely. Underlying credit momentum, as measured by the 3-month saar (seasonally adjusted annualised rate) has declined even more sharply to 9.3 per cent in March from over 20 per cent at end-2022," it said.
It can be noted that all lenders have been having a great run with high credit growth and lowest stress on the books in over a decade at present.

India's manufacturing PMI increased to 56.4 in March up from 55.3 in February, reflecting an expansion in manufacturing activity for the 21st consecutive month. 

India's manufacturing activity expansion continues in March 

India's manufacturing PMI increased to 56.4 in March up from 55.3 in February, reflecting an expansion in manufacturing activity for the 21st consecutive month.&nbsp;

India's manufacturing PMI expanded from 55.3 in Feb to 56.4 in March. This comes as the 21st month of manufacturing PMI remaining above 50.&nbsp; A PMI reading of more than 50 reflects an expansion in manufacturing activity and a number that's less than 50 shows a contraction.&nbsp;
"India's manufacturing sector posted a remarkable performance at the end of the final fiscal quarter, as growth of factory orders and production quickened to the strongest in three months," S&amp;P Global said in a statement.
This also comes on the back of strong GST collections of Rs 1.6 lakh crore in March, which is among the highest GST collections seen since its introduction.&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

RBI: Even as global growth is set to slow down or even enter a recession in 2023, India will have a steady gathering of momentum since the second quarter of the current financial year

Unlike global economy, India would not slow down: RBI article

RBI: Even as global growth is set to slow down or even enter a recession in 2023, India will have a steady gathering of momentum since the second quarter of the current financial year

Unlike the global economy, India would not slow down and maintain the pace of expansion achieved in 2022-23, an RBI report said on Tuesday.
"We remain optimistic about India, whatever the odds," said the article on the state of the economy published in the March edition of the Reserve Bank bulletin.
The NSO&rsquo;s end-February data release indicates that the Indian economy is intrinsically better positioned than many parts of the world to head into a challenging year ahead, mainly because of its demonstrated resilience and its reliance on domestic drivers, it said.
Even as global growth is set to slow down or even enter a recession in 2023 as global financial markets wager, India has emerged from the pandemic years stronger than initially thought, with a steady gathering of momentum since the second quarter of the current financial year, it said.
"Year-on-year growth rates do not reflect this pick-up of pace because by construction they are saddled with statistical base effects, and instead suggest a sequential slowing down through successive quarters of 2022-23 to an unsuspecting reader," said the article.
The article has been authored by a team led by RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra.
The authors further said India&rsquo;s real GDP can go up from Rs 159.7 lakh crore in 2022-23 to Rs 170.9 lakh crore against the current projection of Rs 169.7 lakh crore in 2023-24.
"This is simple arithmetic; hardly a hurray at half-time. Also, unlike the global economy, India would not slow down &ndash; it would maintain the pace of expansion achieved in 2022-23. We remain optimistic about India, whatever the odds," the article said.
Currently available forecasts of India&rsquo;s real GDP growth for 2023-24, including those of the RBI, settle between 6 and 6.5 per cent.
The central bank said that views expressed in the article are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the Reserve Bank of India.

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 57.2 in January to 59.4 in February -- its highest level in 12 years

 India's services sector activity hits 12-year high in Feb: PMI 

The seasonally adjusted S&amp;P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 57.2 in January to 59.4 in February -- its highest level in 12 years

The Indian services sector expanded at the strongest rate in 12 years in February supported by favourable demand conditions and new business gains, a monthly survey said on Friday.
The seasonally adjusted S&amp;P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 57.2 in January to 59.4 in February -- its highest level in 12 years.
For the 19th straight month, the headline figure was above the neutral 50 threshold. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
"The service sector more than regained the growth momentum lost in January, posting the sharpest expansion in output for 12 years as demand resilience and competitive pricing policies underpinned the joint-best upturn in sales over the same period," said Pollyanna De Lima, Economics Associate Director at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence.
On the prices front, there was substantial moderation in cost pressures as input prices increased at the slowest pace in nearly two-and-a-half years and output charge inflation softened to a 12-month low.
New orders placed with service providers rose further in February, with several firms suggesting that competitive pricing boosted sales, the survey said. Still, capacity pressures remained mild and jobs rose only marginally, it added.
"Despite the strong upturn in new business intakes, service providers noted only mild pressure on their capacities and, as a result, a large proportion of firms left payroll numbers unchanged," Lima said, adding that hiring growth was also dampened by a lack of confidence in the business environment.
The degree of optimism recorded in February was the lowest for seven months and below the historical trend as some companies doubted demand would remain this resilient. Others displayed concerns surrounding fierce competition for new work.
Meanwhile, the S&amp;P Global India Composite PMI Output Index -- which measures combined services and manufacturing output -- rose from 57.5 in January to 59 in February, highlighting a sharp and stronger rate of expansion.

Moody's said economic momentum in a number of large emerging market countries, including India, has proved more resilient to last year's tightening in the global and domestic financial environment than it had anticipated

Moody's increases India's 2023 growth forecast to 5.5% from 4.8%

Moody's ups India's growth projection for 2023 to 5.5%

Moody's said economic momentum in a number of large emerging market countries, including India, has proved more resilient to last year's tightening in the global and domestic financial environment than it had anticipated

Moody's Investors Service has raised India's GDP growth forecast from 4.8 per cent in Novemember last year to 5.5%. This, on the back of a sharp increase in capital expenditure in the Budget and a resilient economic momentum.
It however revised downwards India's growth estimate for 2022 to 6.8 per cent from 7 per cent pegged in November last year.
In its February update to Global Macro Outlook 2023-24, Moody's raised the baseline 2023 real growth projections "meaningfully" for several G20 economies, including the US, Canada, the Euro area, India, Russia, Mexico, and Turkiye, accounting for a stronger end to 2022. Moody's said economic momentum in a number of large emerging market countries, including India, has proved more resilient to last year's tightening in the global and domestic financial environment than it had anticipated.

The global economic ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war have been immense. India too faced the brunt of the war on multiple fronts. Here's a look at the economic impact on India. 

1 year of Russia-Ukraine war: Economic impact on India 

The global economic ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war have been immense. India too faced the brunt of the war on multiple fronts. Here's a look at the economic impact on India.&nbsp;
&nbsp;

24th February marks exactly one year since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The global economic shocks caused by the war were a huge setback to the recovery from the covid pandemic.&nbsp;
The Indian economy too faced the repercussions of the war on multiple fronts. On the geopolitical front, the Indian govt had a difficult balancing act to play in an effort to maintain a neutral stance between the west and Russia. This, especially considering its long-standing ties with Russia as well as a strengthening of ties with the U.S.&nbsp;
The Indian economy, like the rest of the world, faced high inflationary pressures. As a result of the disruption to global supply chains, both food and energy prices shot up. This led to inflation staying well above the upper limit of the Reserve Bank of India's tolerance band of 4% to 6%.
Heavy sanctions from the west on Russia, supply chain disruptions all led to global crude prices shooting up to around $139 a barrel. Importing about 85% of crude oil requirement, India was hit hard. And in April 2022, India's retail inflation jumped to an 8-year high of 7.79%.
However, while Russia was facing sanctions from the west, India has been buying crude at a discounted rate from Russia.&nbsp;&nbsp;
As per a Reuters report, in January, Russia was the top crude oil supplier to India, with crude imports from Moscow jumping to 9.2% on a monthly basis to a record 1.4 million barrels per day.&nbsp;
Indian equity markets crashed nearly 5% on 24th February last year, with the Nifty falling over 800 points. As per reports, it was the 4th worst fall ever for the Sensex. The markets have since recovered, and even touched new highs last year. Indian markets have once again turned extremely volatile, which has largely been the fallout of the Adani-Hindenburg controversy.&nbsp;
However, India is in a relatively better position as compared to other economies. Both the World Bank and the IMF have called India as 'a bring spot' and expect it to be one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.&nbsp;

Retail inflation breached the RBI's comfort zone and rose to a three-month high of 6.52 per cent in January, mainly on account of a spike in food prices, as per government data released on Monday

January retail inflation spikes to a 3-month high of 6.52%

Retail inflation breached the RBI's comfort zone and rose to a three-month high of 6.52 per cent in January, mainly on account of a spike in food prices, as per government data released on Monday. 

Retail inflation breached the RBI's comfort zone and rose to a three-month high of 6.52 per cent in January, mainly on account of a spike in food prices, as per government data released on Monday.&nbsp;

Retail inflation breached the RBI's comfort zone and rose to a three-month high of 6.52 per cent in January, mainly on account of a spike in food prices, as per government data released on Monday.
The inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 5.72 per cent December and 6.01 per cent in January 2022.
Inflation rate for the food basket was at 5.94 per cent in January, up from 4.19 per cent in December.
The previous high was 6.77 per cent in October.
The Reserve Bank has been mandated by the central government to ensure the retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side.

India has reclaimed fifth place among the world’s top equity markets by value after being briefly usurped by France

India reclaims 5th spot among world's top equity markets

India's market at 5th spot in World as Adani shares tank

India has reclaimed fifth place among the world&rsquo;s top equity markets by value after being briefly usurped by France

As Adani Group shares saw a massive selloff, India has reclaimed fifth place among the world&rsquo;s top equity markets by value.
According to Bloomberg, India&rsquo;s market capitalization stood at $3.15 trillion on Feb 10th, inching back above France with the UK retaining seventh place.&nbsp;
The total value of India&rsquo;s market was about 6% lower than Jan. 24, the day before the selloff in Adani stocks began. While steps by the group to restore investor confidence have helped its shares reclaim some value, they remained $120 billion lower than before the rout.

Factory output measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 1 per cent in December 2021

Industrial production rises 4.3% in December	

Factory output measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 1 per cent in December 2021

India's industrial production rose by 4.3 per cent in December, according to official data released on Friday.
Factory output measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 1 per cent in December 2021.
The data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed that the manufacturing sector's output grew by 2.6 per cent in December 2022.
Mining output rose by 9.8 per cent and power generation increased by 10.4 per cent during the month under review.

Current year economic growth is estimated to be at 7%, Per capita income, has more than doubled, Indian economy is 5th largest in the world: FM

Budget 2023: Indian economy is 5th largest in the world - FM Sitharaman 

Current year economic growth is estimated to be at 7%, Per capita income, has more than doubled, Indian economy is 5th largest in the world: FM

''Current year economic growth estimated to be at 7%, Per capita income, has more than doubled, Indian economy is 5th largest in the world'' says the FM Sitharaman&nbsp;

The Survey also talks about the post-COVID economic recovery and says that the Economy has nearly "recouped" what was lost, "renewed" what had paused, and "renerengised" what had slowed during the pandemic and since the conflict in Europe

FM tables economic survey; economy projected to grow at 6.5% in FY24

The Survey also talks about the post-COVID economic recovery and says that the Economy has nearly "recouped" what was lost, "renewed" what had paused, and "renerengised" what had slowed during the pandemic and since the conflict in Europe

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has tabled the Economic Survey in the Lok Sabha. The survey expects India's economy to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2023-24 compared to 7 per cent in the current fiscal (2022-23), and 8.7 per cent in 2021-22. It says that India will remain the fastest growing major economy in the world, driven by private consumption, higher capex, strengthening corporate balance sheet, credit growth to small businesses and return of migrant workers to cities. The Survey also talks about the post-COVID economic recovery and says that the Economy has nearly "recouped" what was lost, "renewed" what had paused, and "renerengised" what had slowed during the pandemic and since the conflict in Europe. The Economic Survey has also highlighted that though RBI&rsquo;s projection of 6.8 per cent inflation this fiscal is outside the upper target limit, but it&rsquo;s not high enough to deter private consumption, and also not too low to weaken inducement to invest.

The latest edition of the Manpowergroup employment survey reveals that hiring activity in India will weaken in the January to March quarter over global recession concerns. 

Hiring activity in India to weaken amd global recession fears

The latest edition of the Manpowergroup employment survey reveals that hiring activity in India will weaken in the January to March quarter over global recession concerns

Hiring activity in India to weaken

The latest edition of the Manpowergroup employment survey reveals that hiring activity in India will weaken in the January to March quarter over global recession concerns

Amid fears of a global recession looming large, hiring activity in India could slowdown in the January to March 2023 quarter.
The latest ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey says that Indian employers' hiring intentions are conservative for the current quarter compared to the previous one.
The survey of over 3000 employers, shows that around 48% of Indian companies said that they would hire more people in March quarter, while 16% of the companies expect a reduction in hiring intent and 34% plan to keep the workforce steady.
The report says that India&rsquo;s net employment outlook stands at 32% implying that hiring intentions have fallen 17% on a year-over-year basis and 22% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Despite this, at 32% net employment outlook, India remains among the countries with the most optimistic outlooks.&nbsp;
The report goes on to say that hiring confidence has taken a hit across countries, amid concerns of a recession coupled with inflationary pressures. Apart from India, countries which report the most optimistic outlooks include Singapore (33%) and Australia (32%). While the employment outlook is most cautious in Japan (8%) and Taiwan (11%).&nbsp;

India's economy to grow despite world is ‘dangerous’:  Amidst reports of a global recession and downgrading of growth rates of almost all major economies, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

India's economy to grow despite world is ‘dangerous’: FM Sitharaman 

The minister, however, observed that the Indian economy is not exempt from the impact of swirling global currents

India's economy to grow despite world is &lsquo;dangerous&rsquo;:&nbsp; Amidst reports of a global recession and downgrading of growth rates of almost all major economies, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman exuded confidence on India's relative and absolute growth performance in the rest of the decade and forecast the country's growth rate to be around 7 per cent this financial year.
The minister, however, observed that the Indian economy is not exempt from the impact of swirling global currents.&nbsp;
&ldquo;After the unprecedented shock of the pandemic, came the conflict in Europe with its implications for energy, fertiliser and food prices. Now, synchronised global monetary policy is tightening in its wake. So, naturally, growth projections have been revised lower for many countries, including India. This triple shock has made growth and inflation a double-edged sword,&rdquo; Sitharaman said.
After the conflict started in February 2022, there was a sharp increase in food and energy prices. India had to ensure that the rising cost of living did not lead to lower consumption through erosion of purchasing power.
<a href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/economy/why-is-p-chidambaram-asking-fm-sitharaman-to-take-up-astrology-1657776179722">Nirmala Sitharaman</a> is on her 6-day visit to the US from October 11-16, the minister would meet US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and <a href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/the-recession-risk-and-reality-world-bank-warns-fedex-flags-worry-1663304464644">World Bank </a>President David Malpass separately to discuss the issues of mutual interest.

Amid soaring global prices, is there cause for optimism for the Indian economy? Vikram Chandra speaks to Soumya Kanti Ghosh, SBI Group Chief Economic Advisor, about how India can ensure long-term growth while weathering short-term challenges.

The India Story Episode 7 | Global inflation woes: Can India’s economy emerge victorious?

Amid soaring global prices, is there cause for optimism for the Indian economy? Vikram Chandra speaks to Soumya Kanti Ghosh, SBI Group Chief Economic Advisor, about how India can ensure long-term growth while weathering short-term challenges.

The Ukraine-Russia war, following the Covid-19 pandemic, has resulted in soaring global prices and caused fuel and food shortages. The resulting inflation has hit India hard. Retail inflation has surged to the highest point in 8 years, and both home loans and petrol have gotten more expensive.
However, this crisis also presents an opportunity for India to transform its economy, and change the balance of power in Asia.
Also Watch: <a href="https://www.editorji.com/story/the-india-story-episode-6-is-foreign-education-viable-in-a-post-covid-world-1652451485256" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The India Story Episode 6 | Is foreign education viable in a post-Covid world?</a>
This week on The India Story, Vikram Chandra speaks to Soumya Kanti Ghosh, SBI Group Chief Economic Advisor, about how the Indian economy can weather short-term challenges for long-term gains.
We also take a look at India&rsquo;s star-studded delegation at Cannes 2022, where India was the &lsquo;Country of Honour&rsquo;.

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