Call to investigate alleged stock market manipulation via exit polls erupts; TMC MP writes to SEBI

Trinamool Congress Rajya Sabha MP Saket Gokhale has written to Indian markets regulator SEBI demanding an investigation into alleged stock market manipulation through exit polls. Gokhale has specifically asked for an investigation into the exit polls by Axis MyIndia.

Investigation into exit polls

In a letter to SEBI chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch, Gokhlae alleged that the inflated number of seats for NDA led to a rally in the Indian stock market on June 3rd. However a substantial discrepancy emerged between the actual election results and the exit poll predictions, resulting in a significant stock market crash the following day.

In the letter, the TMC MP had asked the SEBI to investigate if there were entities that booked profits through selling on 3rd June and made even more profits on 4th June by short selling. He had also asked the regulator to check if any of these entities have direct or indirect links with the BJP or with pollsters like Axis MyIndia.

“The exit polls were clearly manipulated to rally the stock market. Lakhs of crores of investors' money was later wiped off yesterday after the markets crashed. There must be an investigation to determine if pollsters like Axis MyIndia intentionally inflated the exit polls for the BJP. This is important because Axis MyIndia also had BJP as a client," Gokhale said.

Very important:

Investigation into stock market manipulation through exit polls

I've written to SEBI demanding an investigation into the exit polls (specifically Axis MyIndia) which massively inflated the seat numbers for BJP-NDA.

In Bengal, they predicted 26-31 seats for BJP… pic.twitter.com/OhdZdiudRf

— Saket Gokhale MP (@SaketGokhale) June 5, 2024

He also added that the investigation must determine whether the BJP and any poll agencies have made crores by manipulating the stock markets through exit polls.

Exit poll prediction

Most of the exit polls on Saturday predicted that BJP-led NDA would win anywhere between 350-401 seats. However, in the actual final results showed the BJP-led NDA winning on 292 seats, a discrepancy of 23 - 37%.

“A margin of error can be expected in the range of even 10-15% but a discrepancy of 116-158% is unfathomable. Moreover, it has been noticed that such glaring discrepancy between predictions and results was seen not only in West Bengal but also in several other states," Gokhale’s letter to Sebi said.

On Monday, driven by this exit poll prediction, the Indian stock market saw a sharp rally on Monday, 3rd June, as the Sensex and Nifty 50 both soared over 3% each. Subsequentlt, next day as the numbers for NDA came less than expected, the stock market witnessed a massive crash and the Sensex and Nifty 50 tanked over 5% each. Investors lost over Rs 31 lakh crore on Tuesday.

“A spike of almost 3.5% on Monday after exit polls followed just the next day with a crash of about 5.8% after announcement of election results is unnatural and is an indication of how inflated and off-the-mark the exit polls were. Again, of specific concern here is the most popular & most watched India Today - Axis MyIndia exit poll which was found to have been completely incorrect and inflated in favor of the BJP-led NDA," the Rajya Sabha MP’s letter read.

Also watch: Lok Sabha poll results: Markets crash, volatility index soars over 40% amid vote counting