Eyes on the skies for good news as rains continue to be delayed, the Southwest Monsoon has not advanced further since June 19. That however could end soon, expect rains to come in as the Monsoon is expected to revive from July 8.

But even as temperature rise the average rainfall uptil now has been above average. For India as a whole, the cumulative rainfall was 4% greater than the LPA (long period average) as of 3 July, the rainfall across regions is broadly at par with the all-India average as per IMD data.

Focus shifts from temperatures to agriculture with Kharif (summer) crop declined by 21.6%YoY as of 25 June, 2021, making the area sown this year 18.9% of the normal area sown vs 24.1% last year. But July will be the crucial month to watch. The country receives a third of the season's rainfall in the month of July. The bulk of sowing activity is also carried out during the month. Hence, the trend in July will be crucial to assess the impact on agriculture production and food inflation.